Date | Wednesday 18th September 2019 |
Time | 18:00 |
Today we see the Fed Interest Rate Decision. 94 out of the 98 economists surveyed have forecast a cut in rates from 2.25% to 2.00%.
This level of certainty is not shared by the markets, with CME FedWatch currently forecasting the probability of a cut at 70%.
We have provided conservative triggers below, setting up for a cut of more 25bps or unchanged. Aggressive traders may wish to sell <2.25 as the market has not fully priced this move, we consider this high risk.
What happened last time?
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision – 18-09-26 | |
Time | 18:00 |
Forecast | 2.25 |
Actual | 2.25 |
Deviation | 0 |
One minute spike | 14 pips |
How we setup
Main Event | USD Fed Interest Rate Decision |
Market | USD/JPY |
Deviation | +/-0.05 |
Prior | 2.25 |
Forecast | 2.00 |
Triggers |
Buy >2 Sell <2 |