Today we see the Fed Interest Rate Decision. 94 out of the 98 economists surveyed have forecast a cut in rates from 2.25% to 2.00%.

This level of certainty is not shared by the markets, with CME FedWatch currently forecasting the probability of a cut at 70%.

We have provided conservative triggers below, setting up for a cut of more 25bps or unchanged. Aggressive traders may wish to sell <2.25 as the market has not fully priced this move, we consider this high risk.