AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision - 19-07-02

Date Tuesday 2nd July 2019
Time 04:30

The RBA announce their interest rate decision during the Asian session. 18 out of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to cute rates by 25bps to 1%, while the other eight analysts expect the RBA to remain on hold at 1.25%.

The markets have priced around a 70% probability of a rate cut and therefore we expect the this to be a volatile event.

Last month the markets had fully priced a rate cut, and AUD rallied on the release (though it was short lived).

We see a cut to 1.00% as high risk, and therefore will only be trading this event if the RBA remain on hold.

What happened last time?

AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision – 19-06-04
Time 04:30
Forecast 1.25
Actual 1.25
Deviation 0
One minute spike 18 pips

Setting up procedure

Main Event AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Market AUD/USD
Deviation +/-0.05
Prior 1.25
Forecast 1.00
Triggers Buy >1
Sell <1

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