Today we see the Fed Interest Rate Decision. All 40 economists surveyed by CNBC are forecasting a hike at today’s meeting, while the CME FedWatch Tool is currently forecasting the probability of a hike at 97%: CME FedWatch.

A hike of 25bps will likely see choppy action. The ideal scenario from our perspective would be an unchanged figure, however this is very unlikely. We will setup to trade on a hike greater than 25bps and unchanged.